After signing a 5 year max deal with Brooklyn (and spurning the Mavs), Williams dealt with injury and motivation issues. He played a step slow and steadily declined from his production as one of the top 2 point guards in the league. Popular opinion shifted to “How lucky is Dallas to have avoided Deron Williams?” now, 3 years later, Deron sought a buyout of his large contract and joined Dallas on a discount deal. Dallas hopes that Williams can thrive in their high tempo and IQ offense, and bring some stability to the backcourt on defense.
Theres a silver lining to the acquisition, though. In last year’s 2015 playoffs (Round 1 Game 4 v Hawks) he had 35 points and 7 dimes on >50% shooting, preceded by 27% shooting Game 3. This showed us that a motivated D-Will can still play well and be a net positive.
But can the Mavs build on that and avoid meeting the declining version of Williams this season?
Lets look at another Nets star point guard who arrived in Dallas in an unexpected deal- Deron’s eventual Nets coach Jason Kidd.
Carlisle worked magic with Jason Kidd. Two extremely high BBIQs and they gelled together very well (unlike Coach Rick and Rondo). The Rick-Deron combo has the potential to do very well- you have a fallen star who is motivated by a potentially huge payday next free agency cycle and who has a coach-killer status to outrun, and here is his chance to prove it. As a playmaker and shooter with a decent IQ, Deron could flourish in Carlisle’s intricate and retooled offense (which looks much more like that top of the line one last season than the abysmal effect that a grumpy backcourt after a certain trade). But how can he really help?
Lets use advanced metrics[1] to paint the picture of how much more effective he is than Rajon Rondo or Monta Ellis (both primary ball handlers while in Dallas).
The first is the simpler one- Assist/Turnover Ratio- effectively how many makes each player can pass to before turning the ball over.
The second is much more complicated- Player Impact Estimate- which is used by stats.NBA.com to measure what portion of game events (or overall impact) a player had on the floor. A higher number is indicative of more results and more involvement in success on the floor.
Deron Williams (2015-16*): 6.33 AST/TO, 12.0 PIE
Rajon Rondo (2014-15): 2.23 AST/TO, 9.5 PIE
Monta Ellis (2014-15): 1.66 AST/TO, 9.7 PIE
*stats are derived from small sample size of 3 games, but Williams plays 29 minutes a game
In general, Deron blows Rondo and Ellis out of the park when it comes to working within the team philosophy. He is a more effective playmaker, has better ball security (AST/TO), and has the third highest PIE on the Mavs (Dirk at ~22, Powell at ~15).
This is the largest upgrade the Mavs’ have over last year’s disgruntled Rondo. D-Will’s playmaking and shooting ability allows him to draw defenders towards him regardless of whether he has the ball or not.
Rondo didn’t force defenders to close out, so Rick Carlisle was forced to mix up rotations and run a very limited number of plays for their starters. Because of that very specific strategy, Rondo clearly wasn’t going to succeed in a flow offense, so essentially, the Rondo trade transformed the Dallas offense midseason into something a lot slower, and a lot more daunting to both execute and to defend.
https://youtu.be/2DE5t82uiNI
On the flip side of that coin, you have the flow- the flexible, malleable style of offense that Rick dedicates the season to perfecting. It allows more than just a wider range of plays, it allows Carlisle to mix up the rotation: to go small, 3 guard, or even both (as he did to jumpstart the Dallas offense in the 2nd quarter of their home opener). Rajon Rondo limited that- he allowed teams to get away with subpar defense- Deron will not.
https://youtu.be/ZCdz6e6O41g
But Deron will have his struggles on the inside, especially in replacing Monta Ellis’ penetration. Ellis was so proficient at getting inside for last year’s Mavericks team that pick plays with Nowitzki forced defenders to either switch or stay with both guys. Ellis’ man would have to cut off the drive and also cover the pass to any shooters. That takes a huge toll on defense.
We don’t know how effective that will be this year, with Deron Williams at the helm.
https://youtu.be/2DE5t82uiNI
This year, Dallas will be extremely efficient, and Deron Williams will be at the helm of that efficiency, along with Ray Felton, JJ Barea, and Wes Matthews. However, there will be growing pains with penetration as Carlisle and Williams work together to execute the new hallmark of that offense and to forge an identity of aggressive and effective offense.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmAyRdWL3No
